Probability Technical Analysis

Weekly Market Update - Last Friday's nonfarm payrolls report revealed a gain of 175,000 jobs in April, falling short of the 240,000 jobs expected by economists surveyed by Dow Jones. This unexpected outcome prompted a sharp surge across all three major indices. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose by 450.02 points, or 1.18%, settling at 38,675.68. Similarly, the S&P 500 surged by 1.26% to close at 5,127.79, marking its best day since February, while the Nasdaq Composite rallied by 1.99% to end at 16,156.33. Traders are now pricing in a rate cut, with a 50% likelihood of a 25 basis point rate reduction in September. In my personal opinion, I believe the rate cut could yield negative results for the market, as the positive anticipation preceding the cut may dissipate once it materializes in September. However, the upcoming US presidential election in November may serve as a saving grace for the market. Looking ahead to the coming week, earnings reports will continue, with companies like Palantir, Disney, and many more scheduled to announce their results. Stay tuned as I will reveal my two secret counters once their take profit (TP) or stop loss (SL) levels are triggered later. DJI - DJI is currently facing resistance from its 50-day moving average. Keep an eye on the 38,400 price level, which could potentially act as a previous resistance-turned-support level. A break and close below this level may indicate further downward drift. HSI - For HSI, there's finally a positive development. It's crucial to monitor the break and close above the 18,500 level. This level holds significance for HSI's potential upward movement towards the next resistance level at 20,000. For the remaining charts, please refer to the videos for further analysis. If you've found this weekly market update helpful and advantageous, kindly consider liking and sharing this post as well as my YouTube channel. Your support encourages me to persist with weekly videos, knowing they are benefiting more people.

Weekly Market Update - Congratulations to those who took action on AMD following last week's market update, earning close to a 10% return in just one week. If you're interested in learning how to identify opportunities like AMD, I invite you to enroll in my online courses. You'll gain valuable insights into fundamental and technical analysis, empowering you to make informed decisions in the market. The Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed 211.02 points, or 0.56%, closing at 37,986.40. However, the tech-heavy Nasdaq experienced a 2.05% decline, closing at 15,282.01, while the broader S&P 500 slipped 0.88% to 4,967.23, falling below the 5,000 level. Both indices recorded their sixth consecutive days of losses, a streak not seen since October 2022. The Nasdaq's decline of 2.05% was primarily driven by the chip sector, with Nvidia dropping 10%, marking its worst performance since March 2020. Super Micro Computer plummeted more than 23%, while Netflix retreated over 9%, despite beating quarterly earnings expectations. Looking ahead to the coming weeks, brace yourself for the kickoff of heavy Big Tech earnings reports. Coupled with ongoing tensions, expect significant volatility in the market. Two secret counters have been shared with the close group. I'll provide an update later once either the stop loss (SL) or take profit (TP) levels are hit. DJI seems to find support at 37,500, potentially indicating a temporary rotation of funds from the tech sector into DJI components. For AMD, if it fails to hold at 145, the next support level to watch is around 120. Keep an eye out for AMD's earnings report next Tuesday. Secret Counter 1 & 2: Both counters have a Risk/Reward Ratio above 1 and are currently at crucial support levels. (For members of the closed group) For the remaining charts, please refer to the videos for further analysis. If you've found this weekly market update helpful and advantageous, kindly consider liking and sharing this post as well as my YouTube channel. Your support encourages me to persist with weekly videos, knowing they are benefiting more people.

Weekly Market Update - U.S. stocks ended Friday's session in the red, with all three major indices posting weekly losses. The Dow experienced a weekly drop of 2.37%, while the S&P 500 and tech-heavy Nasdaq declined by 1.56% and 0.45%, respectively. Major banks reported their quarterly earnings, with JPMorgan Chase shares falling over 6% and Wells Fargo slipping 0.4%. Despite a revenue beat, Citigroup dropped 1.7%. Last Friday's market decline may be attributed to concerns about inflation and geopolitical tensions, which weighed on investor sentiment on Wall Street. In addition, the chip sector (including companies like AMD, Micron, and Intel) may face pressure due to reports that China instructed telecoms to remove foreign chips, which also impacted many ADR stocks. In the coming weeks, keep an eye on geopolitical tensions and continued earnings reports from other major banks (such as BAC, GS, and JPM), as these factors could influence market stability. DJI: As previously noted, if prices fail to reclaim recent highs, we may see a surge in selling pressure. The next support levels to watch are around 37,500 and then 37,000. UPS: The bias remains towards the downside. A break and close below the ascending support line could lead to further declines, with initial support at $135. BA: Having fallen below the 23.6% Fibonacci support, Boeing is now eyeing the next support level around $145. BA's bearish trend was noted on March 16, 2024. AMD: China's focus on phasing out American chip makers is significantly impacting AMD. If AMD falls below $162, the next support level to monitor is around $142 (50% Fibonacci level). HSI: The Hang Seng Index has faced resistance twice at 17,000. Immediate support can be found at 16,000. If you've found this weekly market update helpful and advantageous, kindly consider liking and sharing this post as well as my YouTube channel. Your support encourages me to persist with weekly videos, knowing they are benefiting more people. To watch the weekly market update video • YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/c/ProbabilityTA • Follow us on Telegram: https://t.me/ProbabilityPTA To find out more, visit us @ www.probabilityta.com

Weekly Market update - Thursday saw a significant tumble in the Dow, dropping approximately 530 points, or 1.35%, marking its most substantial daily decline since March 2023. This downward trend persisted for the fourth consecutive session. However, the Dow rebounded on Friday, climbing 307.06 points, or 0.8%, settling at 38,904.04. Despite this, all three major indexes concluded the week in the red. The Dow experienced a notable 2.27% decline, marking its worst weekly performance of 2024. The S&P 500 declined by 0.95%, while the Nasdaq lost 0.8%. Amidst the focus on economic data influencing the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions, it's imperative to shift attention back to corporate earnings, starting with major banks in the upcoming weeks. From a technical standpoint, the market appears hesitant to descend from its all-time highs. However, a catalyst is necessary to facilitate a healthy pullback or correction. Despite Friday's rebound across all indexes, they failed to surpass the highs preceding Thursday's drop. If, in the coming week, indexes breach the lows of last Thursday, it could potentially trigger a cascade of selling pressure. This aligns with the adage "sell in May and go away." DJI - In the upcoming week, should prices fail to reclaim last Thursday's highs and maintain support above the established line, we could witness a surge in selling pressure. The fate of the Dow hinges significantly on the major earning reports expected in the week ahead. US Oil - As previously noted, the breakout above $81 in oil suggests a sustained bullish trend. Furthermore, escalating tensions between Israel and Iran are amplifying bullish sentiment, potentially propelling oil towards its next resistance level of $92. The heightened geopolitical tensions could even spur oil prices to spike to $100 in the coming weeks. For the remaining charts, please refer to the videos for further analysis. If you've found this weekly market update helpful and advantageous, kindly consider liking and sharing this post as well as my YouTube channel. Your support encourages me to persist with weekly videos, knowing they are benefiting more people. To watch the weekly market update video • YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/c/ProbabilityTA • Follow us on Telegram: https://t.me/ProbabilityPTA To find out more, visit us @ www.probabilityta.com

Weekly Market Update - Last week, the Federal Reserve maintained its stance on interest rates while reaffirming its forecast for three rate cuts by the end of 2024. With six meetings left and three cuts projected, the pace suggests potential aggressive moves, despite ongoing strong economic indicators. Envestnet’s D’Auria suggests there's a likelihood of fewer cuts this year, highlighting risks associated with premature cuts. In market news, last Friday saw a mixed close: The Dow fell by 305.47 points to 39,475.90, the S&P 500 edged down 0.14% to 5,234.18, and the Nasdaq Composite hit another record high, climbing 0.16% to 16,428.82. FedEx surged over 7% with better-than-expected earnings, while Nike dropped 6.9% due to disappointing guidance and slowing China sales. Lululemon also saw a significant decline of 15.8% following weak guidance and slowed growth in North America, marking its worst performance since March 2020. Looking ahead to the coming week, it's a shortened week for US equities with a good Friday ahead. Market sentiment remains bullish, especially with the Nasdaq index poised for further gains, potentially driven by anticipation of Nvidia crossing the $1,000 per share milestone, and expectations for the Dow Jones to breach and close above 40,000 points. However, once these record-breaking targets are reached, we may witness a sharp reversal as a digestion period sets in. NVDA: Keeping a close watch on Nvidia as it aims for the record-breaking milestone of $1,000. CCL: Anticipating the release of Carnival Corporation's earnings report on Wednesday. BA: Despite finding support at the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level, Boeing is not immune to potential downside risks at this time. For the remaining charts, please refer to the videos for further analysis. If you've found this weekly market update helpful and advantageous, kindly consider liking and sharing this post as well as my YouTube channel. Your support encourages me to persist with weekly videos, knowing they are benefiting more people. To watch the weekly market update video • YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/c/ProbabilityTA • Follow us on Telegram: https://t.me/ProbabilityPTA To find out more, visit us @ www.probabilityta.com

Weekly Market Update - Last week, the US 10-year treasury saw an increase of over 5% following recent economic data that may be too robust for the Federal Reserve to consider loosening monetary policy. The Fed is scheduled to commence its two-day policy meeting on March 19. Despite this, all three US indices experienced slight declines: the S&P 500 shed 0.13%, the Dow dropped by 0.02%, and the Nasdaq slipped by 0.7%. Notably, major tech stocks, such as Amazon and Microsoft, saw declines of over 2% each on Friday. Looking ahead to the coming week, all eyes will be on the policy meeting for the interest rate decision. Additionally, for the Hang Seng Index (HSI), it faced strong resistance around 17,000, which serves as the neckline for the inverse head & shoulder pattern. I'll share updates on this in my Telegram channel. A breakthrough and close above 17,000 could lead to the next resistance level around 17,500. The outcome may hinge on how China responds to the bill passed by the House, potentially banning TikTok in the US on Wednesday, March 13. BA: If the $181 level, representing the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement, is broken upon retest, the bias leans towards further downside. UPS: Currently retesting its neckline. WTI: Recently hit resistance at $81. A break and subsequent close above this level could indicate further upside potential. HSI: Updates on the Hang Seng Index have been shared on Telegram. It has reached the neckline of the inverse head and shoulders pattern. A breakout above 17,000 may pave the way towards the next target at 17,500. For the remaining charts, please refer to the videos for further analysis. If you've found this weekly market update helpful and advantageous, kindly consider liking and sharing this post as well as my YouTube channel. Your support encourages me to persist with weekly videos, knowing they are benefiting more people.

Weekly Market Update - Last Friday, Nvidia experienced heavy profit taking, resulting in a drop of more than 5%, causing the Nasdaq to decline by 1.16% to 16085.11. Despite this, Nvidia shares concluded the week with a gain of over 6%. This surge marks a significant rally, contributing over $1 trillion to the stock’s market capitalization in the new year alone. On the other hand, the number of jobs added last month surpassed expectations, reaching 275,000 compared to the estimated 198,000 by economists polled by Dow Jones. This data suggests that the economy may still be running hot. Looking ahead to the coming week, keep an eye on the CPI data, which could provide the Fed with a clearer picture for its rate cut decision. DJI: Currently forming a bearish divergence with resistance at 39k. HSI: In the process of forming an inverse head & shoulder pattern, with the right shoulder facing resistance at 17k, its neckline. Gold: Anticipating a potential pullback to the 2k resistance turned support. Bias is towards the upside. JD Ltd: Recommends accumulating more shares due to an outstanding earnings report and news of share buybacks. For the remaining charts, please refer to the videos for further analysis.

Weekly Market Update - Last Friday marked a significant milestone as the Nasdaq broke its all-time high, surpassing its 2021 record. The tech-heavy index surged by 1.14% to reach 16,274.94, hitting a new peak of 16,302.24 during the session. Just the day before, the Nasdaq closed at its first record high since November 2021. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 climbed by 0.80% to reach 5,137.08, marking its first close above the 5,100 threshold. The Dow Jones Industrial Average also saw gains, rising by 90.99 points, or 0.23%, to 39,087.38. The enthusiasm surrounding AI has propelled mega-cap tech stocks, as well as the broader market, throughout 2023 and into the current year. Factors such as slowing inflation and the Federal Reserve's pivot towards anticipated rate cuts later in 2024 have also contributed to the Nasdaq's recovery from the challenges of 2022. Looking ahead to the coming week, earnings reports are nearing completion, with companies like Broadcom, Crowdstrike (AI related), SEA Limited (Oversold stock), and NIO among those announcing their earnings. Additionally, there will be a slew of significant economic data releases, including Fed Chair Powell's Testimony, the NFP report, and the announcement of the unemployment rate. Coinbase: Keep an eye on the next resistance level at $240. Avoid blocking the entrance while the entire world pushes through. China A50 - Signs indicate the formation of a bottom. Any pullback presents an opportunity to nibble along the way. HST - Shares similarities with China A50. The bias leans towards the upside. US Oil- The bias is towards the upside, with $81 serving as the immediate resistance level. For the remaining charts, please refer to the videos for further analysis.